2K
19K
8.6K
Oct 9
47%
chance

as reported by the BBC

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@Predictor This has ~1% chance of becoming law, but his economic policy is really amazingly bad

sold Ṁ4,636 YES

Anyone want to place more limit orders at 48% or 49%? I'm currently liquidating everything because of https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393

You think that is bad? There're like 50 bets on when Jimmy Carter is gonna die.

Also way too much internet drama trash.

Imagine calling yourself a rationalist and at the same time thinking the various prosecutions of Trump are legitimate justice

@admissions huh? Imagine calling yourself a rationalist and thinking none of them are legitimate, or that someone running for president should have immunity from prosecution.

@dgga imagine calling yourself a rationalist and still having biased and human failings.

@ShakedKoplewitz not that I call myself a rationalist anyways, but there is no way to come to the conclusion that Trump is innocent of everything he is being charged with, unless you have not read the indictments. And even considering bias and human failings it's not very rationalist to publicly exclaim your opinion with full certainty without having read the source material.

Rationalism is not about the conclusions, it's about how you got there, no?

@dgga @ShakedKoplewitz Imagine calling yourself a rationalist.

@dgga "imagine calling yourself a rationalist and thinking X" is a bad argument in general, even more so when arguing with people who haven't actually called themselves rationalist.

@ShakedKoplewitz Imagine calling yourself a rationalist and using the phrase “imagine calling yourself a rationalist” as an argument

@ShadowyZephyr imagine calling yourself

Imagine it is 3am in the morning. Ring-a-ling-a-ding-dong! Red phone is ringing in the White House with the big emergency. Iran is sending secret missiles surprise to the neighborhood! Who is picking up the phone in the White House? Sleepy Joe is still dreaming of the corvettes and puppies, sleeping off the cocaine lows and melatonin gummies. Will take 20 minutes before he can take the sleep apnea mask off for answering the phone. Trump is already taking the dump on toilet, up and ready, sits back down because foot is asleep, tells Stephen Miller forward the call to the celly I'll take it on the John. Bing-bong-bing, 5 minutes later missiles are flying for the Ayotallah and Trump and the Roger Stone are railing the lines off Bannons buttocks. Vote for the America you are wanting! 👍

Imagine calling without blockers

@Mirek Holy shit. Guess I never really thought about it this way.

@nottelling2ccc Colbert killed me with the "he took a little white power nap" line

Stop.

bought Ṁ157 YES

Holy 👼💦 fucking shit 💩👍 there ✔ are TOO 🤡 MANY 💯 2024 ELECTION 💲 MARKETS. ⚰⚰ I 👁 hope 😇🏿 whatever the 👏 pivot involves will ❓ shift incentives to ⚠😤 have fewer of 😫 them. 🌈👦 Seriously, 😒 every 🏦👏 fucking 😈👏 date, 📅👫 every fucking threshold, 🤝 there's 😍 a market. 📈🏦 ITS ⚜ A RANDOM 🔀 NUMBER 📲😧 GENERATOR. ⁉ Jesus, 🙀 I 🐑 hate 😒 hate hate that I'm 👁 incentivised to 🙊 spend 💰💰 any 👏💦 time at 🗽🕛 all 🍆✊ thinking about ✨👌 it. 😑😳 I am going ➡ mad. 💰😤 MAKE 📣📣 IT 🤷😱 STOP ❌

@Mirek lol at the idea that your “incentivized to spend time thinking about it” as if you have no choice but to care about every market because you could get a play money currency

@Mirek 👍✅🆗🙆🏼‍♂️

@DylanSlagh Someone has to be thinking of it! You sure are not. Every day, weight of the world is on the shoulders of myself and my mutter.We wake up thinking of the markets. We check the news, is Trump or Biden the president? And then we just are taking the info needing to predict, but there are more and more and more markets. How can I make it in America?

@Mirek in all seriousness, I get so bogged down in the hoarder's house that is Manifold that I get tired of looking for high quality markets amidst all of the nonsense. And to quote your emoji-filled rant, "🍆"

@AlQuinn What; not a fan of sports betting, stocks betting, will One Piece die before Jimmy Carter's codpiece, will Elon twit before Destiny twats, or daily coin flip reruns, are we?

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