For people unfamiliar with Web Development at Berkeley, but familiar with Manifold: What is the Web Development at Berkeley big-little competition?

The WDB big-little competition is a game show-style competition between pairs of people ("bigs" and "littles") who are members of the club Web Development at Berkeley, at UC Berkeley. Detailed rules are here, but the gist of it is: every week, for 8 weeks, there are a few challenges that are worth points. Challenges can be easy (get food with your big/little) or very difficult (reach 10,000 ft of elevation with your big/little). The number of points that the challenge is worth scales with the difficulty. Whichever pair gets the most points by the end of the competition will be the winner. There will also be likely two "tournaments," which allow for teams to earn points by placing well in those.

The leaderboard will be updated often once the competition starts, and I'll post the link to the challenges list here. Other potentially relevant information:

Fall 2023: Leaderboard, challenges

Spring 2023: Leaderboard, challenges

I am also happy to post any relevant details that you might want in order to help with prediction.

Note that all of the "littles" are new members to the club, and therefore wouldn't have participated in the competition in the past, so you won't find them on the past leaderboard.

Why should you care? Well, a lot of the people betting on this will be people betting on themselves to win - if you are able to figure out better probabilities, there is potentially lots of mana to win.

For WDB members and others familiar with the competition, but not familiar with Manifold:

This is where you can use fake money to bet on who you think is going to win. If you buy "Yes" on a certain pair, that is effectively a bet on them winning the competition; if you buy "No," that is a bet on them not winning. Every bet will move the probability a little bit depending on how much you spend on that bet. So, if you think that someone who is currently listed at 10% actually has a 20% chance of winning, you can buy "Yes" on them and earn fake money at the end of the competition if you're right.