Dominic de Bettencourt's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.63
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Dominic de Bettencourt bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will the collective effort to beat every single Super Mario Maker level before the servers shut down succeed?YESṀ2,500
- Will Finland retain its position as the happiest country in the World Happiness Report 2024?YESṀ1,000
- (day trade market) will Bitcoin Be above 73000 by 7pm (GMT-5) today on at least 2 platforms (binance,coinbase etc..)YESṀ800