Will I be laid off before the start of 2025?
Basic
21
1.5k
2025
21%
chance

I'm a software engineer at a no-name mid-size startup. I've been working at this job for ~18 months now but have been mailing it in for the last 6 months, mostly because I'm somewhat burnt out, and don't particularly care for the product or my work.

That was fine when the company was doing well, but revenues are down and management is demanding more of our small dev team. Try as I might though, I just can't bring myself to summon any motivation to do my best work here daily. Since interviews are hard to come by, and my nest egg is rather thin, I am sticking it out and going to attempt to do the minimum amount of work possible to not get fired at least until the end of the year.

I'm scared that this continued half-ass won't work though, because management definitely know it's a buyer's market and are being more assertive and management-y and demanding. A few low-performing teammates have been let go already. Will I avoid this fate and manage to do enough to stay at the job until at least 1st Jan 2025?

points in favor of NO:

  • my team (core product team) is very small (5 devs) and codebase is legacy so hiring and onboarding a new developer is very costly. especially for the upcoming cycle which is peak business cycle

  • business has had unusually high turnover to start the year and company mood is kinda low so i doubt management would want to exacerbate that

  • i still have not/never received any direct concerns about my work, so it's all in my head at the moment

points in favor of YES:

  • been mailing it for a while and its obvious to anyone who cares to see, so i might be a bit on thin ice

  • easy to get new hires

  • no PIP policy, just straight canning

I'll resolve this NO if I'm still formally employed at this job at the start of the new year, and YES if i'm terminated before then. N/A for any ambiguous circumstances, like i resign etc

my incentives are obviously strongly to keep the job, but I will buy and sell yes/no shares randomly

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

update: i kind of rallied and have greatly improved my productivity over the last month. my job is dramatically safer because of this and also because i'm the only developer left on my team currently. barring some cataclysmic change I doubt I'm getting fired. i also feel less burnout, which was probably tied to the job anxiety

reposted

You won’t be laid off, but you should quit. (Not recklessly).

i plan to seriously consider quitting at the start of the new year once I have padded my emergency fund and if i still feel apathetic

bought Ṁ50 NO

Hey, hope you feel better about your work soon. ❤️