39
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1k
Nov 6
52%
chance

This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!

Behind Georgia and Arizona, Wisconsin ranks the 3rd most competitive state race that Joe Biden won in the 2020 Presidential Election. Both Trump and Biden won by razor thin margins in Rust Belt states such as Wisconsin during their respective election victories. Once a blue-collar Democratic stronghold, de-industrialization, outsourcing of manufacturing jobs and a sense of being left behind by economic elites has left the state in a toss-up status.

2004: Kerry (0.4)

2008: Obama (13.9)

2012: Obama (6.9)

2016: Trump (0.7)

2020: Biden (0.7)

Will the Democrats be able to carry the state once again in the 2024 election? If so, market will resolve as YES. If the state flips red, market will resolve as NO.

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It’s not 100% clear what “staying blue” means here. I think this is intended to reference only which party picks up the electoral votes in the presidential race, but again it’s not totally explicit. Can you please clarify how this will get resolved?

@JohnOliver "staying blue" means the Democratic nominee for president wins the electoral votes within the state. If the Republican nominee for president wins the electoral votes within the state, I would consider that "flipping red"

Wisconsin is a state with many colors.