This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!

Texas is seen as a Republican stronghold in federal elections, consistently voting for the GOP candidate. However, with demographic shifts throughout the years, and Trump being a polarizing controversial figure, that margin of victory has begun to shrink.

2004: Bush (22.9)

2008: McCain (11.8)

2012: Romney (15.8)

2016: Trump (9.0)

2020: Trump (5.8)

Will 2024 finally be the year that the Dems tear down the GOP's Red wall and manage to win the state for the first time since Jimmy Carter in 1976?

If so, market will resolve as YES. If the Lone Star State's remains Red by any margin, market will resolve as NO.