This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!

Coming in at a whopping 20 Electoral College votes (tied for the 5th largest EC state in the country), Pennsylvania was the largest flip that Joe Biden achieved in his 2020 election victory. Biden won a lot of appeal with voters in the state, seeing himself as a bit of a hometown hero with his Scranton roots, reversing much of the conservative populism that gave Trump his victory in the state in 2016.

2004: Kerry (2.5)

2008: Obama (10.3)

2012: Obama (5.4)

2016: Trump (0.7)

2020: Biden (1.2)

Since going to the Dems in 2020, the state has trended even further blue with major governorship and Senate victories in the 2022 Midterm elections. Will Biden be able to score a repeat victory in 2024? If so, market will resolve as YES. If not, market will resolve as NO.