There's been a Fox News poll screenshot going around Twitter for the past few days showing that currently 20% of black voters favour Trump.
Will this 20% become to fruition? Market will resolve as YES if official election data released confirms >=20%. If not, market will resolve NO
The Republican share of the Black vote in previous presidential elections, for context:
2020: 12%
2016: 8%
2012: 6%
2008: 4%
2004: 11%
2000: 9%
1996: 11%
1992: 10%
Seems to me that 2020 is more of a returning to the pre-Obama baseline than a sign of a major realignment of Black voters.
The last time any Republican candidate for President won more than 20% of the Black vote was in 1960 (Nixon won about 30% of the Black vote then, and won a considerably lower share when he ran again in 1968 and 1972.)
I wouldn't be shocked if Trump won something in the realm of 10-15% of the Black vote in 2024 - but 20% is way too drastic.