There's been a Fox News poll screenshot going around Twitter for the past few days showing that currently 20% of black voters favour Trump.
Will this 20% become to fruition? Market will resolve as YES if official election data released confirms >=20%. If not, market will resolve NO
1,000
3.00Fox news' own exit polls have it at 16%. https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/general-results/voter-analysis
CNN showed 13% of Black Voters choosing Trump in their 2024 exit polls
@mods creator appears to be inactive. I’m pretty sure this resolves NO according to spirit of the question.
The Republican share of the Black vote in previous presidential elections, for context:
2020: 12%
2016: 8%
2012: 6%
2008: 4%
2004: 11%
2000: 9%
1996: 11%
1992: 10%
Seems to me that 2020 is more of a returning to the pre-Obama baseline than a sign of a major realignment of Black voters.
The last time any Republican candidate for President won more than 20% of the Black vote was in 1960 (Nixon won about 30% of the Black vote then, and won a considerably lower share when he ran again in 1968 and 1972.)
I wouldn't be shocked if Trump won something in the realm of 10-15% of the Black vote in 2024 - but 20% is way too drastic.