Will Donald Trump receive 20% or more of the black vote in the 2024 election?
Dec 6

There's been a Fox News poll screenshot going around Twitter for the past few days showing that currently 20% of black voters favour Trump.

Will this 20% become to fruition? Market will resolve as YES if official election data released confirms >=20%. If not, market will resolve NO

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predicts NO

The Republican share of the Black vote in previous presidential elections, for context:

  • 2020: 12%

  • 2016: 8%

  • 2012: 6%

  • 2008: 4%

  • 2004: 11%

  • 2000: 9%

  • 1996: 11%

  • 1992: 10%

Seems to me that 2020 is more of a returning to the pre-Obama baseline than a sign of a major realignment of Black voters.

The last time any Republican candidate for President won more than 20% of the Black vote was in 1960 (Nixon won about 30% of the Black vote then, and won a considerably lower share when he ran again in 1968 and 1972.)

I wouldn't be shocked if Trump won something in the realm of 10-15% of the Black vote in 2024 - but 20% is way too drastic.

How does this resolve if either biden or trump are not the nominees?

@AaronBreckenridge Market will resolve NO if Trump is not nominated

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