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MANIFOLD
Will Kenneth Gainwell outscore Miles Sanders in fantasy in 2022?
4
Ṁ140Ṁ313
resolved Jan 15
Resolved
NO

This market resolves YES if Kenneth Gainwell outscores Miles Sanders in 2022 (Weeks 1-18) according to FantasyData.

The Bold Prediction from JJ Zachariason: Kenneth Gainwell Will Outscore Miles Sanders

Why This Is Bold: Miles Sanders goes well ahead of Kenneth Gainwell in fantasy drafts.
Why This Will Happen: You're sick of me talking about my models, I know, but Kenneth Gainwell looked good in both the prospect model and the Year 2 one. He finished his rookie season with a 10.8% target share, becoming just the third rookie since 2011 to hit a 10% target share while carrying the ball fewer than 100 times. The other two? Nyheim Hines and Tarik Cohen.

Not only were both of those players effective (Cohen had an awesome second season, while Hines has become one of the best pass-catching backs in the league), but Gainwell has more early-down upside than the two of them do. Miles Sanders has been inconsistent throughout his career, and even just last year, Gainwell edged him out in success rate.

If reports are true that Gainwell has a shot to see high-leverage situations, then watch out.

Context:

In his August 23rd, 2022 email newsletter, fantasy football analyst JJ Zachariason outlines 15 bold predictions that he describe as "really possible":

Why share a bunch of fantasy football bold predictions if they’re not actually useful?
 
You probably know by now that I’m all about having a process in fantasy football.

That extends to bold predictions.
 
At the end of the day, bold predictions are just looking at either side of some range of outcomes. For a bold prediction to come true for a player, he’s likely either hitting his floor, or he’s hitting his ceiling. So you can still get mathematical and nerdy when putting together these wacky forecasts. You don’t need to throw random takes at the wall and hope some of them stick.

In the spirit of getting mathematically and nerdy, I've created each of his 15 bold predictions as individual markets for his fans to track throughout the year in the Fantasy Football Bold Predictions group. It's very much expected that most of these will resolve negatively, but a few should turn out true. Happy predicting!

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