This market resolves YES if Diontae Johnson finishes outside the top 24 wide receivers in 2022 (Weeks 1-18) according to FantasyData.

The Bold Prediction from JJ Zachariason:

Diontae Johnson Will Finish as a WR3

Why This Is Bold: Diontae Johnson is consistently drafted as a WR2, often as a higher-end one.
Why This Will Happen: I've got to preface this by saying that Diontae Johnson is a really good wide receiver. And we should generally buy talent at wide receiver in fantasy football.

So, yeah, this one is a little tough for me to write.

Situationally, I'm just a little worried as the Steelers get acclimated to this new era. Over the last two seasons, only Tampa Bay has thrown more passes than Pittsburgh. Johnson's seen an impressive target share over these two years -- it was at 27.5% per game last year and 23.6% the year before -- and that resulted in huge target totals. He's fourth in the NFL at wide receiver in total targets during this time.

Pittsburgh is almost definitely going to be more run-heavy without Ben Roethlisberger. That'll naturally lower Johnson's volume. But what if whoever's under center isn't peppering Johnson the same way Big Ben did?

Johnson's average depth of target ranked in the 24th percentile among 50-plus target wideouts last year, largely because the Steelers ran an offense that surrounded the idea of getting the ball out quick. With a more mobile passer and a hopefully improved offensive line, what if that changes? What if that allows players like Chase Claypool and George Pickens to develop more plays down the field?

This isn't to say Johnson's incapable of doing that, too. Again, he's a great wide receiver. There's just an outcome here where he's not seeing the same type of volume in the Pittsburgh offense this year, which is concerning for fantasy purposes.

Context:

In his August 23rd, 2022 email newsletter, fantasy football analyst JJ Zachariason outlines 15 bold predictions that he describe as "really possible":

Why share a bunch of fantasy football bold predictions if they’re not actually useful?
 
You probably know by now that I’m all about having a process in fantasy football.

That extends to bold predictions.
 
At the end of the day, bold predictions are just looking at either side of some range of outcomes. For a bold prediction to come true for a player, he’s likely either hitting his floor, or he’s hitting his ceiling. So you can still get mathematical and nerdy when putting together these wacky forecasts. You don’t need to throw random takes at the wall and hope some of them stick.

In the spirit of getting mathematically and nerdy, I've created each of his 15 bold predictions as individual markets for his fans to track throughout the year in the Fantasy Football Bold Predictions group. It's very much expected that most of these will resolve negatively, but a few should turn out true. Happy predicting!