I’d like to incorporate prediction markets at my company, a technology consultancy. In the early days of Manifold, the Manifold team actually built me a white-labeled version of Manifold for private internal use, but for various reasons I wasn’t able to invest the time and effort to ensure its success. More old documentation here if you’re interested.
I’d like to give it another shot, but with the public Manifold instance. How might I best structure it to be private enough to not reveal proprietary secrets while also making it easy to use and increase the likelihood of successful adoption?
For example, my initial thinking includes:
Grouping all questions via a topic and/or Dashboard
Obscuring title and description details via a link to an internal Google doc that has the actual market titles and descriptions (but this seems clunky and likely to depress adoption)
Encouraging team members to anonymize their user names to encourage more open trading (in the earlier instance, as an example, I found that I was hesitant to bet my true probability because as the leader of a team, I needed to display confidence in my team to get a project done, otherwise they’d see my lack of confidence and it would be a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.)
I’m not sure how to incentivize accuracy while also not incentivizing someone to sabotage a project if they have a ton of NO shares that it will be successful, for example. (This might not be an actual issue, but I’d like to proactively solve for it.)
Any and all comments about any part of this endeavor are welcomed and will be considered for bounty award.
Happy to answer questions in the comments.