Resolves YES if Manifold gives out a bounty to someone for discovering a bug exploit that is responsibly sent to Manifold that would allow an account to achieve a balance of 1 billion mana.
SirsSalty admin note: I changed the question and description slightly to ensure that it doesn't encourage bug abuse, but remains true to the spirit of the question
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Edit (Derik): I have closed the question while I seek clarification about the new rules about disallowed markets. The original question before admin edits was as follows:
Will another infinite mana exploit be found by the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if proof is posted of an account not belonging to the Manifold team with a current balance of at least Ṁ1,000,000,000 (however obtained).
As far as I can tell there was no account with such a large balance, though @chrisjbillington found an exploit and received a bounty for it. I am N/Aing this market in protest because it was edited by admins due to a rule change, and I am not allowed to resolve it according to the criteria I set.
Btw @derikk I updated the title and description in a way which should stay true to the question and prediction, but will help ensure it doesn't incentivise bug abuse.
@DavidChee is there a ban on questions that could incentivize bug exploitation? I am actually interested in the question as it was originally worded, and would prefer your edit to be reverted unless there is a policy saying otherwise.
@derikk Yes, we've just added a new rule update that disallows resolution criteria being fulfilled from a bug being exploited. See: https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-someone-surpass-the-portfolio#2EgVYxuKI7sO9jfRubR0
Feel free to re-edit the title and description as long as it aligns with this. IMO the new title and description should still resolve appropriately for 100% of situations where a bug is discovered responsibly.
@DavidChee I haven't actually edited the community guidelines yet, but will be doing so shortly. Just wanted to wait for any discussion and thoughts (feel free to share them!)
@DavidChee banning questions where the resolution criteria are likely to be fulfilled through a bug being exploited seems like a double standard. Although it makes sense currently it should not be a permanent addition to the rules.
Every market (including real world financial ones) can be a assassination market if you're creative.
The goal for manifold should be to have decent enough bug bountues/security/development practices it is a much smaller issue.
@RobertCousineau we arent outright banning all questions where a bug can can affect the resolution.
But the market resolution will just not be affected if only triggered by a bug. However in this case the only way the resolution can be triggered is by a bug exploit.
@DavidChee Many existing markets could be "manipulated" by influencing real-world events, and I don't see why Manifold deserves special protection here. There are many questions along the lines of "will X be hacked/experience an outage"; should those be banned too?
Moreover, malicious bug exploiters could make infinitely more mana from exploiting the bug directly than betting on markets like this, so it doesn't really add an incentive for them. If it encourages honest users to look for and report bugs responsibly, all the better.