Which one will have a better opening weekend at US Box Office?

Resolution criteria

The market resolves to whichever film earns the highest domestic US box office gross during the opening weekend of January 30 - February 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official box office data from Box Office Mojo or The Numbers. The opening weekend is defined as Friday through Sunday of that weekend.

Background

Iron Lung releases January 30, 2026, a science fiction horror film written, directed, and starring Mark Fischbach (Markiplier), adapted from the 2022 video game of the same name. What began as a niche release expanded to 2,500 theaters after Markiplier told his 73 million social media followers to call their local theaters. Industry projections suggest Iron Lung could earn $9M-$10M, though presales were reported above $5M as of mid-January.

Send Help is a horror-thriller directed by Sam Raimi, starring Rachel McAdams and Dylan O'Brien as colleagues stranded on a deserted island after a plane crash. Send Help is expected to take the #1 spot with $14M in opening weekend earnings.

Shelter is an action thriller directed by Ric Roman Waugh, starring Jason Statham. Shelter is projected to earn $8M-$10M, though it is releasing as a limited theatrical release in select markets.

Considerations

Heavy advance ticket sales for niche fan titles often don't expand beyond that core audience, which could limit Iron Lung's ceiling despite strong presales. Conversely, some in distribution circles believe Iron Lung could double its conservative projections. Shelter's limited release status may significantly constrain its total compared to the wide releases of its competitors.