Background

President Biden has faced ongoing pressure from immigration advocates to use his pardon power to protect undocumented immigrants from deportation. While presidential pardons typically apply to criminal offenses, some legal scholars argue the constitutional pardon power could potentially extend to civil immigration violations. Recent attempts by the Biden administration to provide protections for undocumented immigrants, such as the "Keeping Families Together" program, have been blocked by federal courts.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if President Biden issues a broad pardon that applies to a significant portion of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States for immigration-related offenses before leaving office in January 2025 (or earlier if he leaves office before then).

The pardon must:

• Be officially announced and signed by President Biden

• Apply broadly to undocumented immigrants as a group (not just individual cases)

• Specifically address immigration law violations

The market will resolve NO if:

• Biden leaves office without issuing such a pardon

• Any pardon issued is narrow in scope (e.g., only applies to a small subset of cases)

• The pardon only covers non-immigration related offenses

Considerations

• There is limited historical precedent for using presidential pardon power for civil immigration violations

• Legal challenges could potentially affect implementation of any such pardon

• The timing of any potential pardon could be influenced by political considerations, particularly given the upcoming 2024 election