The ILA union strike began October 1st 2024. This market will resolve yes if the strike is still ongoing at the end of October 14th 2024, and no otherwise.

The official ILA union website (https://ilaunion.org) indicates that the strike has begun. An official post or message on this website indicating that the strike has ended is the intended resolve event for this market. In the event that the strike ends without a post or message on the official ILA site, or if the message is ambiguous, I will resolve the market by my own discretion. I will try to be fair. I will not participate in the market.

To clarify some more: the market is about the ILA’s actions as a whole. If the ILA declares the strike is over, but some workers continue striking, that will count as the strike ending. This market is also not about the status of the ports under strike. If the opening of some ports is delayed due to eg turned-around ships, but the ILA declares the strike to have ended before October 14th, the market will resolve “no”.