Biden just announced a temporary pier in the Mediterranean to deliver humanitarian aid to the civilians in the Gaza conflict.
If it is successfully deployed, will it be attacked by any other party at any point in time before all of the equipment and men are removed?
This market will solve as the mission is officially over or when it is attacked. There need be no casualties. I will extend the deadline yearly.
It is enough for the US to claim it has been attacked for this to solve as YES.
1,000
3.00The mission was declared complete:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pentagon-ends-troubled-gaza-pier-mission-shifts-focus-to-israeli-port/ar-BB1qavgH
There were no attacks so this resolves as NO.
Described as an attack of "wfp warehouses" rather than the pier itself, sort of a borderline case here
I don't think this counts as settling this (no explicit confirmation), but seems fairly likely that this happened and the US is trying to pretend it didn't to avoid the political ramifications
@ShakedKoplewitz I have been able to confirm that the attack did happen
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2024/04/25/us-led-gaza-humanitarian-aid-pier-comes-under-fire-un-officials-say/
What's keeping from resolving the market is that the description conditions the question to: "If it is successfully deployed".
The article I shared states that the pier was still under construction, and the first aid trucks starting arriving as early as five days ago:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz96d3dn9jro
I apologize for not having thought about and specified what successful deployment means. Here's what I have decided:
Successful deployment refers to the notion that at some point, the mission will be a success. To consider the mission a success after all aid has been delivered would be too stringent for the purposes of this market. On the other hand, simply finishing construction is not enough to consider the mission a success because at that point no aid will have been delivered. Therefore, I consider that the first truck is a good threshold.
Therefore, I will not yet resolve this market as YES.
Because I realize that I could have to make more decisions in this market, I will refrain myself from betting in this market.
@costlySignal It might make sense to be consistent with other markets? I know some of the ones I bet on closed as the pier is now operational. https://manifold.markets/soweliSon/when-will-the-gaza-floating-pier-be?r=Q3JhaWdUYWxiZXJ0