michael's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.16
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when michael bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?NOṀ130
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?NOṀ100
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?NOṀ34
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%