Creator Guide

Market types

Manifold has six question types. Pick the one that fits your question most naturally — the right type makes resolution cleaner and trading more meaningful.

• Yes/No

  The standard binary market. Resolves YES, NO, or N/A. Best for questions with a clear true-or-false outcome.

  e.g. "Will X happen before [date]?"

• Multiple Choice

  Several options, resolves to one (or splits between several). Good for elections, award nominees, or any question with a defined answer set.

  e.g. "Who will win the [award]?"

• Set

  A group of independent Yes/No questions bundled under one title. Useful when the sub-questions share context but resolve separately.

  e.g. "Will each of these teams make the playoffs?"

• Numeric

  Traders bet on a number within a range. Good for quantities, percentages, or scores.

  e.g. "How many units will X sell in Q4?"

• Date

  Traders bet on when something will happen. Works best when the event is certain but the timing isn't.

  e.g. "When will X be officially announced?"

• Poll

  Non-predictive voting with no resolution. Doesn't count toward Leagues or bonuses. Good for gauging opinion rather than forecasting an outcome.

  e.g. "Which of these features do you want most?"

Pick a clean question

• Falsifiable: there should be a clear way to know YES vs NO when the time comes.
• Specific: "Will an AI model score over 90% on benchmark X by date Y?" beats "Will AI get smarter this year?"
• Time-boxed: a deadline avoids markets that drift forever.
• Has a real outcome you care about — markets get more interesting when the creator is paying attention.

Write resolution criteria up front

Spell out what counts as YES, what counts as NO, and what counts as N/A — before traders bet. The earlier this is locked, the fewer disputes you'll have later.

• Name the source you'll use (e.g. "official results from organization X").
• Cover the edge cases you can think of — event cancelled, source unavailable, ambiguous outcome.
• Avoid the word "by" with dates — it's ambiguous. Use "before [date]" if you mean before that day begins, or "before the end of [date]" if you mean by 11:59pm on that day.
• If you have to update criteria mid-market because new events happened, do it in the description and post a comment so traders see the change.

Engage with comments

You don't have to, but it helps. Clarify criteria when traders ask. Pin a comment with the resolution source you'll use. Markets where the creator is engaged feel fairer to bet on.

Resolve promptly

Once your criteria are met, resolve. Sitting on a resolved market locks up traders' mana and erodes trust. If you're not sure about the outcome, see the Resolving Markets page.

Trader bonuses

You can offset market creation costs by earning unique trader bonuses.

Every time a new unique trader bets on your market, you earn a mana bonus. The amount scales with your market's liquidity — more liquidity in the pool means more earned per trader. These bonuses count toward your Leagues score alongside your trading profit.

For the rules around what you can and can't do as a creator (vs. these tips), see Running a Market and Market Policies.