cloe ♠︎'s calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.22
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when cloe ♠︎ bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
- Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?NOṀ70
- Will I see MALINDA live? (Her SF concert is Wednesday of Week 6, Block 1.)YESṀ50
- Will there be any names with the letter Q in them at Proof at the start of the 2023-2024 school year?NOṀ50
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%