# Anton Paquin's calibration

Grade: A, Score: -0.26

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Anton Paquin bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

1%

3%

5%

10%

20%

- Given NO peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023?NOṀ45
- Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?NOṀ30
- Will the room temp superconductor paper replicate in 2023?NOṀ25

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

95%

- Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022?YESṀ700
- In a closed loop of fluid between a hot area and a cold area, an increased flow rate will increase the heat transfer rate in most normal situations.YESṀ500
- 39. Will OpenAI release GPT-4 in 2023?YESṀ500

97%