Anton Paquin's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.31
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Anton Paquin bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022?YESṀ700
- 39. Will OpenAI release GPT-4 in 2023?YESṀ500
- In a closed loop of fluid between a hot area and a cold area, an increased flow rate will increase the heat transfer rate in most normal situations.YESṀ500
97%