chris kux's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.91
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when chris kux bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary page at end of Blue Monday 2024? (Jan 15)YESṀ30
- Will "Dune: Part Two" have >$200 million domestic gross by the end of Pi day? (3/14, two weeks after release)NOṀ25
- Which one is human, which one is AI (Stanford Roommate essay)?YESṀ20
70%
80%
90%
95%