Resolves YES if @EliezerYudkowsky's profit across all markets (excluding this one) with the #superconductivity tag at market close is positive, otherwise resolves NO at that time. This includes markets created after this one.
This market's close date is chosen to be 1 month after the close date of one of the higher-volume longer-term markets.
Suspected market manipulation in order to influence the outcome of this market specifically will be corrected for if possible, and if it is not clear which way the the outcome would have been without such manipulation, this market will resolve N/A.
Eliezer attempting to maximise his profits for superconductivity specifically at the expense of other topics does not count as manipulation for these purposes.
Eliezer placing non-episemtic bets for reasons unrelated to attempting to affect the outcome of this market also does not count as manipulation for these purposes (it may be admittedly hard to tell).
I will resolve by running a script at or shortly after market close that adds up Yud's profit across all the #superconductor markets. I will also have run this script at some earlier time(s) in order to have some record from which manipulation can be inferred.
I will provide this script at market close and allow discussion of its correctness before resolution. I will cache data so that a corrected version of the script can be re-run at a later date on the same data.
I won't trade in this market.
1,000
3.00I calculate that if Eliezer keeps all his current holdings until they resolve, doesn't buy any more, and things resolve in the currently most-likely way, Yud's total profits will be a modest +Ṁ1,128.
He holds NO on RTAPSC by 2025 but YES by 2030. I imagine the total could easily shift into larger profit or to loss depending on exactly when he cuts losses or realises gains, or which he increases his holdings of more.
I was waiting for my daily loan in order to buy into a YES 2030 limit order that would have made things worse for him (assuming we don't get RTAPSC by 2030), but Eliezer cancelled the order before I could - perhaps suggests he's not planning on increasing YES 2030 holdings, at least not at the current price.