What is my Aella number?
Basic
19
1.5k
2025
12%
2
36%
3 or lower
42%
4 or lower
59%
5 or lower
74%
6 or lower
84%
7 or lower
82%
8 or lower

Aella's Aella number is zero. A person Aella has slept with has an Aella number of one. A person that person has slept with (who has not also slept with Aella) has an Aella number of two, etc.

What is my Aella number, at time of writing?

Each answer "N or lower" resolves YES if I am reasonably convinced, before market close, that my Aella number as of market creation was at most N. All other answers resolve NO after market close.

More answers for higher numbers can be added if needed.

I live on the opposite side of the planet and am, lamentably, not a massive man slut, but I think there are some good leads that might mean this question has an answer. Some circles in which there is at least one person whose "Chris number" I know include:

  • Melbourne, Australia polyamorous and rationality/EA circles (Chris number: 1)

  • Washington, DC, and Baltimore, Maryland polyamorous circles (Chris number: 1)

  • Oxford, UK, EA circles (maybe, I think) (Chris number: 2)

  • One guy in the bay area who works at Google, I think he is poly (Chris number: 2)

If you think you might have leads, contact me privately (discord, Manifold DM) to compare notes. Please refrain from discussing the private lives of anyone in an identifiable way in the comments, that would be most uncool.

I will not trade in this market.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

@chrisjbillington were you on her birthday party? Do you know anyone from those who were there?

Her bets are contradictory

@KongoLandwalker nope, I wasn't at the birthday party and don't know anyone who was.

Curious, would u disclose ur sexuality? (And gender also?)

Assuming that there are more straight ppl, your aella number should more likely be a single number

@Sss19971997 yes, I'm a hetero man. Unsure what you mean by "a single number". If everyone were hetero then opposite gender people would always have an odd number of links in between them, that's true. Perhaps that makes odd numbers somewhat more likely, but my feeling is not by much.

@chrisjbillington My (very high conviction) bets (No on 2, 4) were just based on this alone

So just as an example, if you have slept with someone, who slept with someone else who has slept with Aella, then you’re number would be three? Also, as another example, if you have only slept with people who have only slept with you, then would you even have an Aella number?

@CarlCinco three is correct, you're counting the number of edges in the graph. And yes in that scenario one would have no Aella number, or you could say their number is infinity or something like that.

I'm really curious what percentage of adults on earth have a finite Aella number, but that seems impossible to find out 🤔

@SimonKletteraffe What definition of sex are we using? Aella's definition is penis-in-vagina which is going to radically decrease the percentage, as it won't be spread through gay circles or by a portion of bisexual/pansexual interactions.

It seems impossible to find an exact number, but an upper bound could be determined.

Why did you make this market 😭

@WieDan haven't you always wondered?

@WieDan I don't want to get too serious in the comments of a not-very-serious market, but FWIW - I'm not naive enough to be unaware that proper people aren't open about sex under their real names online. But I'm kind of against that norm so decided not to follow it. As long as I'm not forcing others to be more public than they'd want, it should be fine.

Nobody would think it was weird if I asked about my Erdős number, other than that it's too easy to figure out so wouldn't warrant a market (it's five).

Another answer to your original question btw is that this market was prompted by this picture that was going around Twitter, and it made me wonder.