Is the latest video of a supposed sample of LK-99 exhibiting flux pinning real?
196
1.4k
1.9k
resolved Sep 4
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if compelling evidence comes to light that the below video supposedly showing a suspended speck of LK-99 (or a slight recipe change thereof) over a magnet, is real - it's at room temperature and pressure, the sample is LK-99 (actually screw it: the sample can be any material at all - there's nothing it can be other than a superconductor if it's real), and the magnet is a regular dipole magnet, there are no tricks or anything misleading about it, it's not CGI.

Evidence can take the form of more, significantly harder-to-fake videos from the same user, independent vouching from reputable sources such as academic physicists who have witnessed it, etc.

Whether the quality of evidence is sufficient to resolve is on my judgement, so I won't bet. I think the video is (very) fake, but I'd love it to be true as much as anybody and promise not to be unreasonable about it.

Resolves NO in a month otherwise, or early if the user publicly admits fakery.

Twitter embed of video, for conveneince (original link below)


Original upload on douyin:

https://www.douyin.com/user/MS4wLjABAAAAJaTuSBArw0c6bK0eI9T1-f_SBoqNbWhBpyF87zp5-iBddzzmt6_GSTHBMoDmolba?modal_id=7263715495256378659&relation=0&vid=7263715495256378659

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predicted NO

Can this please resolve to NO

@JonathanBoswell It's looking like it will, but I said I'd give it a month for evidence of its legitimacy to come to light, so there's about two weeks remaining before I'll resolve NO in the absence of such evidence.

bought Ṁ186 of NO

@1111111 definitely trolling he's claiming anti-gravity

bought Ṁ100 of NO

The video says something like:

If you don't study physics, life is magical

I'll just add a bit of anti-gravity fluid, this thing will fly up to the ceiling if it is given too much

Now the ceiling is full of particles and the vacuum can't suck them down

bought Ṁ0 of NO

https://twitter.com/OdzDnaWhPqOEGpq/status/1688404190111088641

Allegedly an apology from the video creator.

predicted NO

@EvanDaniel Isn't this related to a different video?

predicted NO

@Simon74fe Oh hmm. Yep, you're right. Got things mixed up. Thank you!

predicted NO

Has anybody extracted the essence of this Chinese video of rotating golden poop?

sold Ṁ28 of YES

sigh time to pack it in

predicted NO

OP on douyin has updated his pfp and description

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@1111111 pfp looks like troll behavior

sold Ṁ103 of YES

@Simon74fe apparently there is a professor in China at the Tsinghua University who said he would eat shit it this was true and the uploader is mocking him.

We are so back

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Alpakastudio Ah haha, really? Got any source for that?
The future of humanity hangs by the interpretation of a poop emoji

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Seeing claims that Zhang Xiang of Wuhan University has denied being the poster of the original video on douyin: https://twitter.com/DHZ12366/status/1688006102653583360


A translation of the screenshot (from bard):

"""
Sure, I can translate the full text of the image for you. The text says:

Subject: Hello teacher, are you the one who posted the room-temperature superconductor video on Douyin?

Body:

Hello teacher,

I saw a video on Douyin today afternoon by a user named "Alchemist A-shang" that claimed to have replicated room-temperature superconductivity. In the video, a synthesized superconductor is shown to be completely levitating on a magnet. Based on the IP address of the video, netizens have deduced that the video was posted from Hubei province, and that the user's surname is Zhang. Therefore, I believe that you may be the one who posted the video. I am writing to you to ask if this is the case. I would be very grateful if you could reply.

Sincerely,

[Your name]

The text is a screenshot of an email from a student to their teacher. The student is asking the teacher if they are the one who posted a video on Douyin (a Chinese social media platform) that claimed to have replicated room-temperature superconductivity. Room-temperature superconductivity is a hypothetical state of matter in which a material would conduct electricity with no resistance at room temperature. This would be a major breakthrough in physics, as it would have many potential applications in technology.

The student believes that the teacher may be the one who posted the video because the IP address of the video is from Hubei province, and the teacher's surname is Zhang. The student is asking the teacher to confirm if they are the one who posted the video, and to provide more information about the experiment.

I hope this translation is helpful. Let me know if you have any other questions.
"""

price for the "is the video from Zhang Xiang" market heavily dropped to reflect this https://manifold.markets/EthanFast/did-zhang-xiang-create-the-flux-pin

I think this should cause a minor update to this vid being fake - although maybe that uncertainty is already priced in.

predicted NO

@1111111 A non bard-translated text is a little clearer - bard seems to only be translating the body of the initial email, not the response:

predicted NO
predicted YES

I'm considering abandoning my yes position. The shadow of the (pen?) on the magnet seems to move discontinuously at 9ish seconds and I'm having a hard time convincing myself it isn't edited. What are people's thoughts on this?

predicted YES

@anon I think it moves naturally. You may think otherwise because you have the scale incorrect. That is not a pen, but something with a much more smaller circumference.

predicted NO

edit: nvm ignore

predicted YES

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