Resolves YES if compelling evidence comes to light that the below video supposedly showing a suspended speck of LK-99 (or a slight recipe change thereof) over a magnet, is real - it's at room temperature and pressure, the sample is LK-99 (actually screw it: the sample can be any material at all - there's nothing it can be other than a superconductor if it's real), and the magnet is a regular dipole magnet, there are no tricks or anything misleading about it, it's not CGI.
Evidence can take the form of more, significantly harder-to-fake videos from the same user, independent vouching from reputable sources such as academic physicists who have witnessed it, etc.
Whether the quality of evidence is sufficient to resolve is on my judgement, so I won't bet. I think the video is (very) fake, but I'd love it to be true as much as anybody and promise not to be unreasonable about it.
Resolves NO in a month otherwise, or early if the user publicly admits fakery.
Twitter embed of video, for conveneince (original link below)
Original upload on douyin:
https://www.douyin.com/user/MS4wLjABAAAAJaTuSBArw0c6bK0eI9T1-f_SBoqNbWhBpyF87zp5-iBddzzmt6_GSTHBMoDmolba?modal_id=7263715495256378659&relation=0&vid=7263715495256378659
1,000
3.00@JonathanBoswell It's looking like it will, but I said I'd give it a month for evidence of its legitimacy to come to light, so there's about two weeks remaining before I'll resolve NO in the absence of such evidence.
douyin account appears to no longer exist https://www.douyin.com/user/MS4wLjABAAAAJaTuSBArw0c6bK0eI9T1-f_SBoqNbWhBpyF87zp5-iBddzzmt6_GSTHBMoDmolba
Some interesting new posts on his douyin page https://www.douyin.com/user/MS4wLjABAAAAJaTuSBArw0c6bK0eI9T1-f_SBoqNbWhBpyF87zp5-iBddzzmt6_GSTHBMoDmolba?modal_id=7265286865912171791&relation=0&vid=7263715495256378659
🤔
The video says something like:
If you don't study physics, life is magical
I'll just add a bit of anti-gravity fluid, this thing will fly up to the ceiling if it is given too much
Now the ceiling is full of particles and the vacuum can't suck them down
https://twitter.com/OdzDnaWhPqOEGpq/status/1688404190111088641
Allegedly an apology from the video creator.
Since this market dropped to a more reasonable 20%, that one might more interesting:
@Simon74fe apparently there is a professor in China at the Tsinghua University who said he would eat shit it this was true and the uploader is mocking him.
We are so back
@Alpakastudio Ah haha, really? Got any source for that?
The future of humanity hangs by the interpretation of a poop emoji
@Simon74fe in this Twitter thread someone clarified it
https://twitter.com/Floatyrock6730/status/1688147988906917889?t=VA18Je_SEQiwjmqaD7UwFA&s=19
Seeing claims that Zhang Xiang of Wuhan University has denied being the poster of the original video on douyin: https://twitter.com/DHZ12366/status/1688006102653583360
A translation of the screenshot (from bard):
"""
Sure, I can translate the full text of the image for you. The text says:
Subject: Hello teacher, are you the one who posted the room-temperature superconductor video on Douyin?
Body:
Hello teacher,
I saw a video on Douyin today afternoon by a user named "Alchemist A-shang" that claimed to have replicated room-temperature superconductivity. In the video, a synthesized superconductor is shown to be completely levitating on a magnet. Based on the IP address of the video, netizens have deduced that the video was posted from Hubei province, and that the user's surname is Zhang. Therefore, I believe that you may be the one who posted the video. I am writing to you to ask if this is the case. I would be very grateful if you could reply.
Sincerely,
[Your name]
The text is a screenshot of an email from a student to their teacher. The student is asking the teacher if they are the one who posted a video on Douyin (a Chinese social media platform) that claimed to have replicated room-temperature superconductivity. Room-temperature superconductivity is a hypothetical state of matter in which a material would conduct electricity with no resistance at room temperature. This would be a major breakthrough in physics, as it would have many potential applications in technology.
The student believes that the teacher may be the one who posted the video because the IP address of the video is from Hubei province, and the teacher's surname is Zhang. The student is asking the teacher to confirm if they are the one who posted the video, and to provide more information about the experiment.
I hope this translation is helpful. Let me know if you have any other questions.
"""
price for the "is the video from Zhang Xiang" market heavily dropped to reflect this https://manifold.markets/EthanFast/did-zhang-xiang-create-the-flux-pin
I think this should cause a minor update to this vid being fake - although maybe that uncertainty is already priced in.
@1111111 A non bard-translated text is a little clearer - bard seems to only be translating the body of the initial email, not the response:
@1111111 Here is the source for these claims: https://www.zhihu.com/question/615790258/answer/3152333274
@anon I think it moves naturally. You may think otherwise because you have the scale incorrect. That is not a pen, but something with a much more smaller circumference.
edit: nvm ignore