chilli's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.49
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when chilli bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ3,337
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ2,000
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ1,000
90%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ4,000
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ4,000
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ4,000
95%
97%
- Will 75% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Monday 3rd JulyYESṀ5,000
- Will Ke Huy Quan (from Everything Everywhere All at Once) win the 2023 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor?YESṀ2,000
- Will "Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One" have a >70% Rotten Tomatoes score two weeks after release?YESṀ1,000