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I bet this up and then down again after reading something about some cherry blossoms in tokyo that have already begun to flower. However, it turns out there are several species of tree, some of which are expected to flower earlier and are not considered to mark the start of the cherry-blossom season.

The official start of the season, which is what the date and link the in the description are referring to for 2023, depends on when a certain number or fraction (I'm not sure which) of buds bloom on a specific specimen tree in Tokyo.

Perhaps you can clarify @cherryblossoms, but I'm currently betting under the assumption that you're planning to resolve this market based on the date that has the same status as the March 14th date did in 2023, which I believe is official season start as per the Japan Weather Association (who run tenki.jp), based on this specimen tree.

@chrisjbillington Correct I will be using the same source which is the Japan Weather Association for the official season start. The specific cherry blossoms referred here is “Somei Yoshino”.

Here is an article forecasting for reference for this year: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20240315/p2a/00m/0na/035000c