charlie's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.51
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when charlie bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial (including sentencing) conclude before the end of 2023?NOṀ500
- Scandal markets for EA related things will unfairly tank someone's reputation before 2024, or otherwise seem (ETA: significantly) negative EV in retrospect because of drama caused or changed perception of EA.NOṀ200
- Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2023?YESṀ100
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%