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Arbitrate: /marketwise/what-will-ecb-announce-for-interest

The ECB has raised rates at each of its past ten meetings to curb runaway price growth but signalled a pause for October and markets expect its next move to be a cut, not a hike, sometime around mid-2024. (source)

What does "until" mean here? Do they have to raise them in every session until the end of the year? Or just once? Or just never lower them? Or have a net increase compared to some start?

@nanob0nus it means it will raise until de 31st of December even if it's just for one more time since the day the market was created.

@cdrummondb So will you resolve this instantly if the rates are increased or wait to check they are decreased again?

@nanob0nus It's resolved if they increase until the 31st of December. Even if the rates decrease again. If at any time the ECD raises the rates, it will be resolved.

@cdrummondb FYI, if I'm understanding correctly, you want to say "before" the end of 2023. "until" implies some continuous, ongoing action, which is the source of the confusion.

This market gets a Manifold-sponsored 5k Mana half-subsidy and half-boost because I consider it of public interest.

@marketwise Oh, something went wrong here. Seems I just forgot to actually do it, so I did now.

Enjoy the liquidity everybody!

Just to clarify, This is this about further raises after the raise from September 20.

I'm confused about your "425 basis points" statement, because on the ECB website it looks like only "450 basis points" (deposit facility from -0.5 to 4.0, fixed rate from 0 to 4.5, marginal from 0.25 to 4.75).

@marktweise You are right. It has increased 4.25 on fixed rates