cc6 ♠︎'s calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.91
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when cc6 ♠︎ bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of Q1 (March) 2024? [description]NOṀ300
- By the end of 2023, will any real-world event have had at least 20 different Manifold markets about it with near-identical resolution criteria?YESṀ101
- Will Ron DeSantis be one of the top three candidates in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?YESṀ100
50%
- 🐕 Will A.I. Be Able to Make Significantly Better, "Common Sense Judgements About What Happens Next," by End of 2023?NOṀ110
- Will DeSantis be the #2 polling candidate nationally the day before the Iowa caucuses?YESṀ100
- Will DeSantis be the #2 polling candidate nationally the day before the Iowa caucuses?YESṀ100
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%