Will there be a second presidential debate in the 2024 US election?
Will there be a second presidential debate in the 2024 US election?
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1kṀ20kresolved Sep 11
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This question resolves YES if there are at least two live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) featuring at least one major party candidate (whoever they may be) before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There have been at least two presidential debates in every US presidential election since 1976 (or 1984 if you exclude 1980, which featured two debates but one which lacked both main party candidates). For easy reference, here are the number of debates in each election cycle and a link to debate schedules on Wikipedia:
2020: 2
2016: 3
2012: 3
2008: 3
2004: 3
2000: 3
1996: 2
1992: 3
1988: 2
1984: 2
1980: 1 including both Carter and Reagan, 2 including at least one or the other
1976: 3
1960: 4
Will there be a second debate?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.