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Will there be a coup attempt in Ukraine in 2023?
14
Ṁ290Ṁ1.2k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

a "coup attempt" is any serious effort to forcibly seize part or all of the national government of Ukraine

examples:

  • credible evidence of a coup plot alone would not count (fails the "serious" requirement)

  • demonstrations calling for the government to resign would not count (fails the "forcible" requirement)

  • the assassination of Zelensky, even by Ukrainian actors, would not count as a coup attempt unless paired with other actions that are typical of an effort to seize state power, e.g. capturing strategic buildings in Kyiv

  • the forcible seizure of a sub-national government would not count (fails the "national" requirement)

  • the Wagner rebellion, had it happened in Ukraine, would have counted

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