Cliffhanger is a game which resolves according to the chart below
Every bet in the prevailing direction increases your potential payout, but also increases the risk that the resolution percentage goes "over the cliff", eliminating your earnings!
Arbitrage, market manipulation, coordination and competition are all possibly advantagous (and encouraged!) in this market.
Additional Details
The formula used to calculate resolution value is the following, where C is market probability at close:
1% - 49%: 4.166*MOD(C-5,25)
51% - 99%: 4.166*MOD(C+4,25)
50%: 50% (effectively N/A)
Resolution value is rounded to nearest 1%
Market probability values less than 1% and greater than 99% are rounded to those respective integer perentages
Market will close on a random date in the last 15 days of October
I will refrain from betting in this market
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2 |
@Joshua Good question. I was thinking about just picking date ahead of time using an RNG. I'm not betting in the market anyway, so there's no advantage for me to close it at any specific time
If there's a real concern, I could write a brief statement on the date chosen then post the MD5 so people can verify after the fact.
Same, and dunno if this will be popular enough to be worth too much effort. You could just ask people to trust you.
My only solution would be to set a known time every day of the window where you'll ask @FairlyRandom to generate a number, but that's additional work and would then require everyone who takes the game seriously to be online at that time.