Will January 2024 be the hottest January on record globally?
71
580
1k
resolved Feb 14
Resolved
YES

Resolves per the global NOAA monthly report. Ends a week in to Feb to allow for predictions coming in before the report relase.

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This question is poetic, you win because you placed the right bet, but does anyone really win if the climate is breaking records every year ?

bought Ṁ20,250 YES

The January global surface temperature was 1.27°C (2.29°F) above the 20th-century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F), making it the warmest January on record.

Graph shows anomaly of 1.26 vs 1.21 for 2016 (table data 1.27 vs 1.22)

@ChristopherRandles Thanks, I can resolve on behalf of @c0m because they appear to have been inactive for some time even though they have been pinged in here earlier.

sold Ṁ611 YES

Hottest on record per NASA (a different temperature dataset) but is very close 121 vs 118 so a different dataset could easily be different.

I felt it wasn't worth the risk so I bailed out.

It looks like this will release on 14 February so I am going to extend the closing date @c0m

@Eliza Seems like c0m wanted it to end before the report came out per the description.

@ChristopherRandles It was specifically extended past 31 January so we could trade until the report comes out.

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1753647992358543409

Should be yes but not betting due to @Eliza 's comment on methodology changes.

@WieDan That's JRA-55, a totally different model. I think it's evidence that this one is likely to be in the top 3, but not necessarily strong evidence that it will rank #1.

@Eliza Are models so different that they don't even track each others movements like that?

@WieDan Just for example, NOAA has revised their model several times in the last few years and the hottest January has shifted between several years (2016, 2020, 2023, I think) every time it changes. In the 5.1 model, the hottest January was 2016 and 2023 was like 5th, but in the new 6.0 model, 2023 is first!

This seems highly relevant to the market -- the model will be updating again, presumably for the January 2024 edition.

Based on the JRA figures, it seems like 2024 has a chance to be very close to 2016 and 2023, but it all comes down to how the new model handles each year.

@Eliza link?

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Global warming is real

predicted NO

What's with all this movement and no one sharing why!

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 90% order

@Eliza I put in a No limit order at 90%.

  1. The all-time record for January is actually fairly high already (from 2016).

  2. A brief and imperfect analysis of land temperature values through at least 75% of the month indicates to me that the overall land temperature in 2024 has likely been a bit lower than recent years, especially last year.

  3. The sea surface temperature seems to be significantly warmer than last year, and also warmer than 2016.

I still think it's quite likely that the warm sea surface temperatures will continue to carry this as a warm month, but there is at least some room for questioning.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@Eliza https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1750966447067832640

This was a few days ago, so I'm not sure if temperatures were unexpectedly warm in the past few days (which wouldn't explain why the price was already high) or the market is overconfident or something else is going on.

predicted NO

@StevenK Note these very important details:

  1. That report is using a different model (JRA-55) from what this market will resolve using (NOAAGlobalTemp)

  2. The NOAA model version was updated in 2023, and past records including 2016 and other recent years have been affected by this change. At the time of its release, the January 2020 report marked the month as the warmest ever, but the new revisions have put January 2016 back on top.

So:

  • The differences between modeling methods are real -- just because one model is looking like X doesn't mean all other models will.

  • The change in methodology has definitely had an impact on records for January.

I agree with you that this market is/was likely trading too high. I placed a limit order at 90% because the entire market has been trading at 95% for a long time including last month and this month, and it seemed reasonable that participants would fill my order at 90%. Since I haven't gotten any nibbles yet, I updated and made a new order at 85%.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

How does a tie resolve?

predicted NO

@StevenK I doubt it will be a tie, but if it is, we would need to ask @c0m

predicted NO

@Eliza I am hereby asking

predicted NO

@StevenK Tie seems pretty likely if it's close

What trends in the current worldwide monthly averages would result in this NOT being a Yes? We have seen four consecutive months of all-time highs, and by somewhat large margins.

I'm curious to see if this trend continues in October.

I think I would buy No at 75% but I'm also not confident enough to buy Yes at 60%.