How many times will 538's election model change its predicted winner between today (25 Jun) and the election?
48
1kṀ16kresolved Nov 5
100%98%
4-7 times
0.4%
0 times
0.4%
1-3 times
1.2%
8-10 times
0.4%
more than 10 times
This question concerns 538's election forecast model. Since launching on 11 June with Biden in the lead, the predicted winner has switched twice (on 14 June & 21 June). Between today (25 June) and the election (5 Nov) inclusive, how many times will the predicted winner switch under the model?
Details. Resolution is according to the "win probability" version of the model:
Ties do not count as switches.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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