Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (ticker: ^GSPC / .INX) closes above 5,000.00 on the last trading day of August 2026. It will resolve to NO if the index closes at or below 5,000.00.

• The last scheduled trading day of the month is Monday, August 31, 2026. If the U.S. stock market is closed on that day due to an unscheduled event, the closing price on the last actual trading day of August 2026 will be used.

• The closing price will be verified using the official index values reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices or major financial sources such as Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) and Google Finance (.INX).

Background

As of late July 2026, the S&P 500 is trading in the 7,400 to 7,500 range. While the market has recently experienced minor fluctuations driven by tech earnings and sector rotations, it remains significantly above the 5,000.00 mark. This market queries whether a catastrophic market crash or unprecedented downward correction will occur in August 2026 to push the index below 5,000.00.

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