[Short fuse] What hour will the Bitcoin halving occur in (UTC)?
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resolved Apr 20
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This question resolves once the first Bitcoin block after the halving is mined. I.e. the first block which has the mining subsidy halved.

The question resolves to the hour in UTC of the timestamp of the first block after the halving is mined.

Examples

  • If the halving occurs at 12:04 AM UTC this question resolves to 0.

  • If the halving occurs at 6:59 AM UTC this question resolves to 6.

  • If the halving occurs at 7:45 PM UTC the question resolves to 19.

Resolution date is flexible in either direction if need be.

Resolves N/A if no blocks are mined for 30+ days.

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bought Ṁ250 0-1 YES

Done

sold Ṁ30 23-24 YES

8 blocks left!

6 ...

50 blocks to go.
50th Last 9hr 36 min
100th last 16hr 44 min so 7hr 8min for 50
150th last 25hr 17 min so 8hr 33min
200th last 31hr 49 min so 6 hr 32 min

So 1 of 4 would do it before end of 19th?

That seems to show a little more variability than taking square root of 50 blocks and multiplying by block time of 9.75 mins. Not sure if that relationship from random walk theory should hold at different number of blocks. Anyone got anything better?

Sorry for unrelated rant, but this market type is the nastiest coprolite ever maninfested here. Particularly the "sell" functionality, all ranges give me negative mana and huge losses. What the heck is it doing?? Couldn't they simply implement this as a dependent MC backend under a shiny new cloak? Would get both Y/N and buy/sell for free. What am I missing?

@deagol yeah i like the idea of numeric markets... But the implementation is so limited.

Is it even possible to sell part of a bucket? Seems like you have to sell a whole bucket at once.

@deagol it's in development, right now you can only sell everything at once, which yeah leads to a lot of slippage so you sell your shares to the AMM at a big loss. No limit orders too

bought Ṁ17 1-2 YES

@bluefrog yeah all at once but it's doing something terribly wrong. It gives negative mana (charges you for selling) and turns what should be big profits into unexplainably huge losses. Totally broken.

@deagol I was hoping the negative mana was just a UI bug. Because I sold out of some buckets. Hope I literally didn't pay for that.

@Bayesian I don't think slippage explains it. I bought M$2 in a bucket at ~1%, then someone bought it up, so I sold it at ~6% and I lost like M$100. That's not slippage, just bad math gone horribly wrong.

bought Ṁ1 14-15 YES

@deagol lol yeah looks like a bug, i'll write a report on the discord

@bluefrog @Bayesian the trading log is also broken. I can understand something in development not quite ready, but this isn't even alpha quality. And again, a simple already existing and throughly tested dependent MC type with a new face does the same.

144 Blocks to go. At 10 minutes a block that is exactly 24 hours from now.

reposted

The day grows near, the disagreement between the different estimates should start to shrink soon.

(I think the variable block time is what makes them disagree - some use ten minutes, some use the actual average block time over the last however many blocks, that sort of thing)

@chrisjbillington Got a correction done on https://www.coinwarz.com/bitcoin-halving which made a 7 hour difference to me due to a time zone calculation error.

Sorry my comments weren't showing up.

https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2024-05-10-12-00 suggests that the halving will be on Apr 22nd, around 4am UTC

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