How much will the worldwide gross of Wonka (2023) according to Box Office Mojo as of the market end date.
The options are mutually exclusive; only one will resolve to yes based on the worldwide gross reported by Box Office Mojo.
"Gross <= 149,999,999" will resolve to yes if the film makes between $0 and $149,999,999
"150,000,000 <= Gross <=199,999,9999" will resolve to yes if the film makes between $150,000,000 and $199,999,999.
... pattern continues for several options
"500,000,000 <= Gross" will resolve to yes if the film makes $500,000,000 or more.
If it looks like it will be well below the bottom bucket or well above the top bucket I may exapnd the "other" category. But existing categories will remain as written. In which case the existing category and the new one could both resolve to YES.
I'm not adding other markets; other will resolve to NO.
The market ends based on the Box Office Mojo results as of 04/29/2024 no matter what. Even if the film is delayed or not yet released by that date. The value reported by Box Office Mojo (or $0 if it is not released) as of that date will be used to resolve the market.
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@SimonGrayson Sorry I backtracked on the meaning of "Other" in this market and will be resolving it NO. I see you had a 10 mana position before I clarified the meaning - let me know if you want a refund of the 10 mana.
I chose the fixed end date for resolution instead of attempting to define "original run".
I want to wait for the Box Office Mojo results to be finalized for this weekend. But assuming they are finalized above the top (right now they are estimated at $507M) - then I think it is fine to resolve this market to YES "500,000,000 <= Gross" .
@bluefrog Wanted to double check if you're still thinking of creating a new market, given that >500M is looking almost certain
@howahlah Yeah I'd really like a heads up if there's a chance of that. Currently the option is defined as "500,000,000 <= Gross", straightforwardly covering everything above 500M. If there's a chance that the meaning of this option will abruptly change, and suddenly it won't cover everything above 500M, that would be good to know. (I was going based on the definition listed by the option).
(I was assuming that "other" would only be used before people had really started betting, because it's not really an "other" if it changes the meaning of existing options, so much so that they'd be renamed).
(Although in the future, it seems like a simple fix would just be to make all the listed markets bounded, and then include a genuine other that can be split off to cover other regions above/below the rest if needed. Currently the other would have to change the meaning of a listed option).
Sorry this was one of my first markets.
It is set to multiple choice - dependent. This means only one option can resolve to YES.
I think the most fair result is just to guarantee that other resolves to NO.
This means based off of the source only "450,000,000 <= Gross <=499,999,999"
Or
'500,000,000 <= Gross" seen possible to resolve YES.
I agree. If I remade a similar market in the future I would do it differently.