The corresponding options are trading with a Delta > 0.5 right now, suggesting that the 100.000 are already certain

@gigab0nus delta ≈ p(option expires in the money) no? just means probability the option expires with btc at least $100k is >0.5

@summer_of_bliss yeah but there is this simple rule that the probability that it reaches this value beforehand is twice as high as the probability that it expires above that

Or not... at this point I think we're way too close to avoid $100,000 this year. There's a lot of time till January the 1st.

I see a rising wedge formation. Bearish.

This is one of the best markets on Manifold.

I'm very confident this is a hard NO. The charts are showing extreme distribution right now, and the resistance will be unbelievable at $98,000, just like it was at $980, where it stayed for months. I am so confident that if it gets there I will go short.

And not only is this a NO, but counterintuitively, the faster the price goes up, the more likely it is to be NO. But people are just increasing the odds based upon the price, which is nonsense.

@SteveSokolowski why don't you buy more NO then? Even as limit?

@RatUziCat There are about ten markets on this topic and I'm betting on all of them. There's no reason to bet one down or place limit orders on one because there are often better prices elsewhere.

Also, the odds here aren't as good as the odds at /Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500 , which should really be at 25% or less, and that's where I have a lot more mana.

@SteveSokolowski I don't get it: the Yudkowsky UFO market is about no big revelation about UFOs in the next five years. Isn't it obviously what'll happen? I understand your other points though.

https://manifold.markets/LCBOB/when-will-the-bitcoin-hit-100k

@deagol do you have a model you’ve made to use for these markets?

@summer_of_bliss a very rough one looking at BTC price, volatility, time left, polymarket price, but mostly arbing with 15 other markets here (significant net NO position overall). I’m currently on vacation so can’t adapt as frequently as I might like.

@deagol ah interesting thanks. arbing makes sense. was wondering since I saw you trading in most of these kinds of markets

Happy I sold a few minutes into the new rally. Good luck existing traders, I'm out!

test

why is this market so much lower than poly & kalshi??

@Ziddletwix general pro-crypto bias on Polymarket and anti-crypto here (and since there's less interest here, Manifold is slow to react to price movements)

@Ziddletwix its in sync with polymarket now

👀

3 months ago:

@elf Here with ya, been accumulating for a while, now partially unloading to de-risk and realise profits.

https://manifold.markets/CreativeCulture/will-ethereum-token-ether-cross-500

I also believe ETH 5k eoy is heavily overlooked, as in there's way more than 10% chance, or at the very least probably able to sell into a higher % when it does +$1k

@elf lol I've always put a lot into crypto after each presidential election

If you enjoy Sanjay's Bitcoin markets, you're going to love our real sats action 🔥 Check out our latest market: 'Will Bitcoin reach 100K in 2025?' 🚀👇

https://beta.predyx.com/category/bitcoin

@predyx_markets LFG 🚀