bildramer's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.19
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when bildramer bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Was Olivia the most popular girls name in the U.S. in 2022?YESṀ200
- Will this simulation of the 2-round Snake Eyes Paradox (Variant Y) output ~1/36?YESṀ100
- The alignment techniques available in 2023 will be insufficiently 'sticky' to prevent a maleficent human actor with their own copy of the model (code and weights) from easily turning the model to whatever ends they choose.YESṀ88
97%