I have decided to create this market after this tweet: https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1634387164908724229
@unusual_whales
BREAKING: Elon Musk just said he is "open to the idea" to buy Silicon Valley Bank and become a digital bank.
(I'm pretty sure that this is joke/fake, but not the real quote from Elon, but I may be wrong)
This market will be resolved as "YES" if Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 and this market will be resolved "NO" if Elon Musk does not buy SVB till 2023.
The close date of this market is the first day of 2024.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ125 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ19 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
Resolving this as NO.
I couldn't find any evidence suggesting that Elon Musk has purchased Silicon Valley Bank. If such acquisition had occurred, there would likely be information available online, possibly even with Elon tweeting about it. As of now, I haven't seen substantial evidence or credible sources confirming Elon Musk's purchase of Silicon Valley Bank.
@fleventy This is a very good question, thank you.
I think that I should resolve this market as YES if Elon buy the bank with other people/legal entities, but his share of the bank is significant. But this leads to the question what exactly is "significant" and I'm not able to answer it fully, share of more than 50% I consider "significant", share of less than 1% — "not significant"., but I can't say the exact number in between that will clearly separate "significant" from "not significant".
I also think that probably (not 100% sure) this should be resolved is YES even if Elon has only small share of the bank but he is a big decision maker for the bank actions (some C-level role, or he is a part of board of directors).
If there are some articles in the big newspapers/sites with the title like "Elon buys Silicon Valley Bank" (and they are not fraud) this should be a clear indication that his market should be resolved as "YES"
Currently I'm not planning to resolve this market as N/A, but in case there are very serious differences of opinion how this market should be resolve, I may reconsider this opinion and resolve it as N/A.
Oh. Actually Elon did say that — https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1634374859043270678