Will the democratic party do better in Michigan than in Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election?
4
46
แน€160
Nov 9
45%
chance

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This will resolve NOT to the overall vote share, but rather the RELATIVE vote share of the Democratic to the Republican party!

For instance, if the margin in Michigan is 49-45 dem-rep, and the margin in Wisconsin is 50-48 dem-rep, it will resolve YES, as 4% > 2%, even though 50% > 49%.

This resolves by percentage margin, not by total vote margin.


This will resolve N/A if something completely insane happens that makes this question no longer meaningful. There will be a high bar for this, but these kinds of things would meet this criteria:

-There's some sort of complicated third party dynamics whereby one of the two major candidates steps aside and endorses a third party candidate, such that the third party candidate is more representative of that party than the party's official candidate.

-The democratic or republican candidate is somehow ineligible to run in one or both states.

-There is some sort of insane contested situation where one of the states is disqualified from the electoral count.

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There's a ton of discourse around biden's weaknesses in Michigan, but (recent) historically, the democratic party has been stronger in Michigan than Wisconsin. Get your predictions in here!