To qualify as a 5% drop, a candidate's odds on the EBO charts must, within a 24 hour period:
start with X probability
start sometime between August 16th 12am EST and November 3rd 12am EST
reach X - 5% or lower at one point
end on X - 3% or lower 12 hours later
A bug with EBO that lasts for more than 24 hours does not qualify as a 5% drop.
See charts at https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html. August 16 is the first date tracked by this market. November 4.
1,000
3.00🚨 Condition 3 just triggered 🚨
Trump lost 5.0% during the span of 2:04:25pm EDT - 9:27:55pm EDT.
The Trump part of this question resolves YES if he does not reach 53.9% or higher by 8:27:55am EST tomorrow. There can also still be alternative, overlapping 24 hour windows that cause a Trump YES resolution.
Note how funnily the universe is stretching the question definition to its limits, as Condition 4's 12 hour period will cross the daylight savings time shift :D
Harris had a drop of 2.3% over a day from what I can tell is… nothing. So maybe Neither is not as likely as I thought.
I just edited
end on X - 3%
to
end on X - 3% or lower 12 hours after the X - 5% threshold is crossed
because
the market is only 1 day old
this clause was intended to be a first line of defense against glitches, and defense against market mania in reaction to, for example, fake news of Trump dropping out being widely reported
the original 4th clause was quite obviously not in the spirit of the question, as I now realize, since any X - 5% drop would immediately resolve by marking the end of the 24 hour period also
I'm willing to revert to the (more broken) market description if there's opposition to this change in the next 24 hours.
If I'm seeing this correctly, the only qualifying event in this election cycle so far would've been Biden's debate, which was a drop of around 13% over 24 hours.