Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if QuantumScape's customer billings (total value of all invoices issued to customers and partners regardless of accounting treatment) exceed $50 million in any single quarter during Fiscal Year 2026 (Q1 2026 through Q4 2026). Resolution will be determined by QuantumScape's quarterly earnings reports and SEC filings, specifically customer billings disclosures. The market closes February 28, 2027 to allow for Q4 2026 financial data release.

Background

QuantumScape has an expanded collaboration with PowerCo (Volkswagen Group's battery maker) providing up to $131 million in payments over two years upon achieving certain milestones, with first milestones already achieved and payments beginning in 2025. In Q3 2025, QuantumScape reported customer billings of $12.8 million. The company has also signed joint development agreements with two major global automakers. The initial PowerCo invoices will not be recognized as revenue under GAAP accounting - this is why customer billings will be the defining metric.

Considerations

There can be divergence between customer billings and actual cash inflows due to timing differences in payments from customers, prepaid deposits, and adjustments to final payment amounts. This market will rely on customer billings only.