Will Pennsylvania decide the election [read description]?

Question

Pennsylvania is generally considered to be by far the most important state in this election cycle. Will it decide the 2024 POTUS election?

Winner of election loses Pennsylvania -> resolves NO

Winner of election wins Pennsylvania but the electoral college margin is large enough that Pennsylvania didn’t matter (i.e won 289+ EV's) -> NO

Winner of election wins Pennsylvania and would have lost if Pennsylvania went the other way (i.e won < 289 EV's) -> YES

Closes the day before the election, resolves as soon as results are known. Faithless electors don't count.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Nov 6, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

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