Will Kamala Harris flip a state?
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Will Kamala Harris flip a state in the 2024 presidential election?

Flipping a state means she wins a state not won by Joe Biden in 2020.

Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count. For example, if Kamala Harris wins Maine's second district, that doesn't resolve this question.

This question closes a day before the election, and resolves as soon as results are known.

If for whatever reason the Democratic nominee changes this question will be about the new nominee.

Versions for Trump:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ100 YES

She’s going to win Iowa

bought Ṁ205 YES at 49%

@esusatyo maybe. Need a market on how many states she flips.

Nate still has this at ~50%:

@nic_kup I think the models always had this too high. There’s only around 2% chance of a flip without NC, but the models give this 10% or something.

@bagelfan thoughts on Iowa flipping now?

I think it's more like 5%.

Given Trump wins NC,

The odds Kamala wins TX, FL, IA, OH, or AK are much higher than 2%.

What's the evidence that Silver or 538 are incorrectly modeling state correlation?

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Yeah Iowa has changed that number now. 5% seems about right.

I don't have access to Silver's model, but I saw a screenshot at one point (before the Selzer Iowa poll) that showed 40% chance of NC but 53% chance of flip, which seemed way off to me.

She will not with this policies!

Approaching Trump rapidly in North Carolina, according to 538. Potential arbitrage opportunity:

Conditional on Harris getting elected, will Iran obtain Nuclear weapons: https://manifold.markets/nic_kup/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030-1m684x7u18

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 51% order

Updated description: If for whatever reason the Democratic nominee changes this question will be about the new nominee.

@bagelfan more than 2m Americans have already voted. More than 440k have voted in just one state.

@becauseyoudo It’s very very unlikely but questions should ideally deal with foreseeable edge cases.

@bagelfan lol, someone getting afraid of Biden saying he's back in?

@PlasmaBallin Uh, nope.

@bagelfan I know, I was just joking about the recent event where he joked that he was back in.

@PlasmaBallin I was thinking the chance of nominee change comes from Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope, currently on 1.8% to win the election.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Missouri

@DaEpicFirestar Why would Missouri be any more likely than Florida or Texas, let alone North Carolina?

@DaEpicFirestar Missouri is Trump +20 or so this year. Trump +15 is the floor.

@BrandonRoney is right. This is an NC market. We need a market on how many states she flips.

@ScottSupak You guys can bet here on "whether this is a NC market" (in the sense that if it's "a NC market" then the market I just created should trade at around 0.

https://manifold.markets/EricNeyman/will-kamala-harris-lose-nc-but-win?play=true

@EricNeyman good idea for a market, and of course it's possible--especially now with the disaster possibly affecting the election--that another state could flip while NC doesn't, and my tone is only meant as a suggestion that the price should be low, and your market is priced pretty well at 8c.

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