awse's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.37
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when awse bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will the "Leftovers" Podcast by Ethan Klein and Hasanabi end or take an indefinite break before 2024?YESṀ1,000
- Will the "Leftovers" Podcast by Ethan Klein and Hasanabi end or take an indefinite break before 2024?YESṀ1,000
- Will the "Leftovers" Podcast by Ethan Klein and Hasanabi end or take an indefinite break before 2024?YESṀ417
95%
97%
- If Apple releases an iPhone case made of a fabric-like material, will the material be called “FineWoven”?YESṀ1,089
- Will G2T flight 1822 from Barcelona to Hamburg on 2023-08-31 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?YESṀ500
- Will my boyfriend and I still be together on our anniversary?YESṀ480