Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be interviewed on Joe Rogan's podcast by the end of 2023?
137
741
Ṁ26KṀ2K
Dec 31
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ133 +1231.9%
New probability
8% +0.2%
Get Ṁ500 play money
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Robert Kennedybought Ṁ100 of YES
Eliezer and the AI Notkilleveryoneism movement was mentioned explicitly with (I believe) pmarca
harfepredicts NO
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-be-a-guest-o the same market for 80000 hours trades lower than this. Despite 80k being more serious and socially closer to EY
Luke Hanksbought Ṁ10 of NO
@harfe thanks for pointing that out. I bought YES for 80,000 Hours and NO for Joe Rogan.
Luke Hankspredicts NO
@rockenots You're predicting NO at 19%. That looks like a contradiction to me. Regardless, I'm looking for explanations, not vouchers.
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