_au_'s calibration
Grade: F, Score: -23.2
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when _au_ bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
- Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will FLI's "Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter" result in a successful 6+ month pause of training powerful AIs?NOṀ50
30%
50%
60%
70%