This question will resolve based on UTC (GMT+0), and the date of exact time, that either an email (from noreply@stake) or a Telegram post from the official channel regarding the availability and release of the so-named ('June Monthly Bonus') bonus is sent or posted. As I use the Telegram post time to the second for my chart, that is the first source of truth, however if they occur over a day change (11:59 and 12:01, for example), the Telegram post will take priority, whichever it is.

I will not post a telegram link here since that's weird, but I am using the official one, not any unofficial/scam ones that copy it and end up being later.

I continue to specify that this is when the **.com site** gets its bonus. The US site tends to get it one day early, which is sometimes an odd day, and the data I am presenting here is for .com, so we will be considering that only. Thus, if you hear that the bonus will be on x day- it may actually be on the x+1 day. However, there have been times where it released first.

If there is no bonus specifically called a monthly bonus by end of day on June 30th 2025, when the clock rolls over UTC, this question will resolve as the final option, 'Never/The June Monthly will not release in June'. If in a public release Stake specifically mentions it will not happen, it will resolve also resolve to the last option, 'Never/The June Monthly will not release in June'.

If it's announced it is cancelled, the market will remain open until the posted end time of end of day June 30th; in case they walk back their decision, and it still releases in June.

This does not resolve if it is a post-monthly or pre-monthly bonus, or some other bonus not related to the eponymous and so-desired Monthly Bonus.

Note 1: In the options, Friday and Saturday are combined because (going by UTC time), there has never been a monthly on a Saturday, and very few on Fridays, and the most recent Friday bonus was May 2022. If we go by EST, then there has never been a monthly on a Friday or Saturday, as those were released very early in the morning UTC Friday, not later. I consider them niche fringe options, and they sort of clutter the choices, and I think if it happened on any of those days, it would truly be a surprise and worth the loss.

I will participate in this market as I have no control over when this happens, but I probably won't abuse it too much. (Edit: I tried to insider trade in the may monthly prediction and i missed by 4 minutes. I was told the new original game was releasing early in the day so I tried to gamble they would have technical issues and delay the release (as they have before). But I got rekt

Wen?

Here's a whole list of the dates of these bonuses, based on the Telegram announcement posts for Stake's main site, along with some random stats.

^

A heatmap of the most common day of the month the drops were, overlayed on the June 2025 calendar month with already elapsed days crossed out:

This creates a nice probability distribution centered around the 13th of each month.

Another chart I picked at random:

Full List:

AI GENERATED NONSENSE INSTEAD OF MY NONSENSE:

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the date and exact time (UTC) when either an email from noreply@stake.com or a Telegram post from Stake's official channel announces the availability of the "June Monthly Bonus" for Stake.com. The Telegram post time will serve as the primary source for resolution. If both announcements occur over a day change (e.g., 23:59 and 00:01 UTC), the Telegram post will take precedence.

If no "June Monthly Bonus" is announced by 23:59 UTC on June 30, 2025, or if Stake publicly states that the bonus will not be released in June, the market will resolve to the option "Never/The June Monthly will not release in June."

This market pertains specifically to the Stake.com site. Announcements or releases for other regional sites, such as Stake.us, will not influence this market's resolution.

Background

Stake.com's Monthly Bonus is a special reward distributed once a month to eligible players. The exact release date varies, but it is generally around the 15th of each month. The bonus is announced via email and the official Stake Telegram channel. Eligibility typically requires a verified email and active participation on the platform. [IT TRIED TO HYPERLINK DIRECTLY TO STAKE I DONT WANNA ADVERTISE MORE THAN I AM ALREADY]

Considerations

Historically, the Monthly Bonus has been released on various days throughout the month, with a concentration around the 13th. However, there have been instances of releases on other dates, including Fridays and Saturdays, though these are less common. Traders should be aware that while patterns exist, the exact release date can vary each month.