This question will resolve based on UTC (GMT+0), and the date of exact time, whichever is earlier, that either an email or a Telegram post from the official channel regarding this bonus is sent or posted.
This will apply to either site getting the bonus first (the US or international site). So, you should predict based on when you think the first one will be released; if you are usually on the international site, then you may want to consider making your prediction one day earlier, but that's also not always been reliable especially recently.
If there is no bonus specifically called a monthly bonus by end of day on April 30th, 2025, this question will resolve to 'There won't be one/There wasn't one'. If in a public release Stake specifically mentions it will not happen, it will resolve also resolve to 'There won't be one/There wasn't one'. If they announce that it is delayed but will still be released, the market will remain open.
This does not resolve if it is a post-monthly or pre-monthly bonus, or some other bonus not related to the eponymous reward.
In the options, Friday and Saturday are combined because (going by UTC time), there has never been a monthly on a Saturday, and very few on Fridays, and the most recent Friday bonus was May 2022. If we go by EST, then there has never been a monthly on a Friday or Saturday, as those were released very early in the morning UTC Friday, not later.
It is very possible for the US one to be released Sunday night, as the local time for the parent company is Australian time.
I will participate in this market, but only my initial predictions, and I am unlikely to update them.
Wen?
Here's a whole list of the dates of these bonuses, based on the Telegram announcement posts for Stake's international site.
Here are some stats:
Excluding 'guaranteed' days (Christmas, August 7th):
A heatmap of the most common day of the month the drops were, overlayed on the April 2025 calendar month with already elapsed days crossed out:
This creates a nice probability distribution centered around the 13th of each month.
I put a lot of work into this post so that if I continue to make these next month to give people something to do, I already have everything ready and templated.
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Some context on the Sunday buys:
Drake was announced to be doing a stream sunday night, which might imply that they would release the bonus, possibly the .us one, before it starts. There is some precedent to that but it could happen after.
I honestly don't care that much but I'm paid to care, and it's more fun to try and get people to engage with this than just asking me all day loll
@atmidnight Do I understand correctly that only one option can resolve to YES and that "April 10th" can resolve to NO, now?
@4fa I was afraid of clicking the resolve button but now it makes a lot more sense, thank you, yes I will resolve them
@atmidnight Thanks! To be completely sure: As soon as one option resolves to YES, all others will resolve to NO, did I understand that correctly?